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Tuesday, August 02, 2005
Does This Qualify as a Miracle?
According to ikimasshoi.news, Morning Musume's "Iroppoi Jirettai" sold 68,000 copies in the first week - their best since "Ai Araba" in January 2004 and better than the total sales for each of the past three singles. I'm happy at the marked improvement, but at the same time wonder how much of it is an artificial inflation from their handshake lottery event and if that doesn't make the higher figures a pyrrhic victory at best.
The closest analogy I can make is the event-driven summer-crossover in American superhero comics. On the one hand, such tactics pique the interest of the fan base and gets more of them to buy the product. But it drives sales lower in the long run because such gimmicks tend to become jumping-off points once the novelty fades. The analogy is by no means perfect, but the main point is this: gimmicks cannot replace a strong product and a dedicated marketing strategy. And the latter just doesn't seem apparent with Morning Musume - though admittedly, observing from halfway across the Pacific certainly leaves me out of the loop.
Some argue that "Iroppoi Jirettai" is a strong single musically which is why it's sold well, and I've even read a few people on MM-BBS who think it's the best Momusu has produced in a long while. (Or at least the catchiest) I hope that's a part of it. Personally, I prefer "Osaka Koi no Uta" but apparently it sold the least of all Momusu singles in Hello! Project history - this despite having at least one day as #1 on the Oricon, something "Iroppoi" didn't get. ("Iroppoi" had steadier day-to-day sales which is why its numbers are better.)
At least two people, Alice Lee and JunHagi, have wisely pointed out to me in comments to previous posts that the idol market in general is on a decline. JunHagi further pointed out the false assumptions in my mildly inane notion that the current Morning Musume line-up would do better if they jettisoned the name and the "burden" of its legacy. It's not that Morning Musume doesn't remain at the top of the girl-idol heap, it's that the heap is shrinking.
I think I'd feel better if I knew Morning Musume would be doing even more handshake events and not have to Willy Wonka invitations to such events. Perhaps they can also do surprise lives of the kind that Santos of Idolizing St. Anna describes for Avex idol groups such as dream and Paradise Go!! Go!! - and now that I think of it, W had a surprise live earlier this year, so it's not out of the realm of possibility for Momusu. And definitely, packaging a PV DVD with their CD singles would at least make them current with other idol groups who do this already - which as I noted already, Matsuura Aya will do with her next single.
It's like Hello! Project has to be nudged little by little to try out new things, when fans who care about such matters are wishing they'd speed up and enact more drastic changes. What someone like me sees as re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic could actually be, from UFA and Zetima's point of view, a desire to not mess with a formula that's worked in the past and could work again in the future.
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The closest analogy I can make is the event-driven summer-crossover in American superhero comics. On the one hand, such tactics pique the interest of the fan base and gets more of them to buy the product. But it drives sales lower in the long run because such gimmicks tend to become jumping-off points once the novelty fades. The analogy is by no means perfect, but the main point is this: gimmicks cannot replace a strong product and a dedicated marketing strategy. And the latter just doesn't seem apparent with Morning Musume - though admittedly, observing from halfway across the Pacific certainly leaves me out of the loop.
Some argue that "Iroppoi Jirettai" is a strong single musically which is why it's sold well, and I've even read a few people on MM-BBS who think it's the best Momusu has produced in a long while. (Or at least the catchiest) I hope that's a part of it. Personally, I prefer "Osaka Koi no Uta" but apparently it sold the least of all Momusu singles in Hello! Project history - this despite having at least one day as #1 on the Oricon, something "Iroppoi" didn't get. ("Iroppoi" had steadier day-to-day sales which is why its numbers are better.)
At least two people, Alice Lee and JunHagi, have wisely pointed out to me in comments to previous posts that the idol market in general is on a decline. JunHagi further pointed out the false assumptions in my mildly inane notion that the current Morning Musume line-up would do better if they jettisoned the name and the "burden" of its legacy. It's not that Morning Musume doesn't remain at the top of the girl-idol heap, it's that the heap is shrinking.
I think I'd feel better if I knew Morning Musume would be doing even more handshake events and not have to Willy Wonka invitations to such events. Perhaps they can also do surprise lives of the kind that Santos of Idolizing St. Anna describes for Avex idol groups such as dream and Paradise Go!! Go!! - and now that I think of it, W had a surprise live earlier this year, so it's not out of the realm of possibility for Momusu. And definitely, packaging a PV DVD with their CD singles would at least make them current with other idol groups who do this already - which as I noted already, Matsuura Aya will do with her next single.
It's like Hello! Project has to be nudged little by little to try out new things, when fans who care about such matters are wishing they'd speed up and enact more drastic changes. What someone like me sees as re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic could actually be, from UFA and Zetima's point of view, a desire to not mess with a formula that's worked in the past and could work again in the future.
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So... how come the idol market in general is on a decline? What is replacing it? (and why? I mean, what are the previous target groups consuming instead?)
If anyone has any clues, I am interested in hearing them, thank you.
It's not just the idol market, but the entire music industry in general. CD sales are in a slump industry wide, as a result of the woesome Japanese economy.
Ray: I think you may be forgetting the hardcore set of H!P fans that UFA needs to cater to as well. They don't bundle DVDs with CD singles yet because these fans will buy both the CD and DVD (I mean, I'm guilty of it too for Osaka Koi no Uta) and stuff like that. These are the fans who are so deadset on things the way they are that probably are the reason Mari couldn't remain as Morning Musume's leader after admiting that at 22 years old she was having a simple relationship with a guy (something she talked about for years in all kinds of H!P stuff, mind you).
As for Iroppoi Jirettai, I don't like the whole "when will the miracle come" bit, but I think it is amazing that the CD has sold so well because if you think about it, the two most popular members of Momusu both left the group in spring leaving behind a lot of underdeveloped personalities. Handshake event aside, that they sold even more than Osaka Koi no Uta I think is commendable.
I still don't get the line in the new single about the biscuit and missed shot, though. Maybe that's just me.
Yoshizawa is a sexy biscuit in the video. Maybe that's what they're talking about.
The past two MoMusu singles have been the best they've done in a while, but that doesn't mean the singles they've released between "Ai Araba" and now are bad at all.
To say that cd declines are on th fall due to the woesome japanese market is very false. If you look the japanese music industry flurished in the 90's, at the very peak of the japanese down turn. The biggest selling artists in fact mostly appeared after 1997. (ayumi, utada,etc) What has contributed to the long decline is of course a combination of downloading, and what has occured long in japan illegal copies made on md players etc.
But its not to say the market is in a complete slump as we see with orange range selling million seller singles.
What is declining most rapidly, what santoslove blogger often states is the idol industry on the whole.
While the success of otsuka ai kinda bucks this trend, what is really suffering greatest in girl groups. Idol groups like sweets, dream, etc all can barely make a go, their singles barely breaking the 10k mark.
It could be the otaku movement. Before these idols were seen as models for young teenage girls, but now they seem to be the poster girls of otaku fantasies.
And i think its a big stretch to call Iida a popular member. While its pretty well known that Rika was the most popular girl in mm at the time, Iida had for a long time been a fairly unpopular member. (though not in the states were it was almost oppisite)
And mm has always had wierd lyrics. Lets go by bike its ok!
Lets make a toast with a paper cup.
I always wonder on what size pizza i shall get, m or l?
I always liked the "paper cup" line. It sounds fun.
— The Anonymous Who Said Yoshizawa Is A Sexy Biscuit
(There have been too many people posting as Anonymous on this site recently so I'm using a temporary disposable handle for now. Hmmpphhh...)
My guess is that the increased sales are due to a marked curiosity about how Morning Musume would fare now that they have their "new ace" with them. Of course, if that is the case, we'll soon find out when they release their next single.
Another guess that's less likely is because it's -- I believe, and I may be wrong -- the first single where Reina is one of the lead vocals. That's the case for me anyway.
It was announced recently that the DVD coming with Aya Matsuura's next single is a video of her broadcasting her live radio show, reading and responding to listener comments related to the theme, "Things you just noticed recently" (Saikin Ki ga Tsuichatta Koto). The PV DVD is still being released seperately 9/28.
And i think its a big stretch to call Iida a popular member. While its pretty well known that Rika was the most popular girl in mm at the time, Iida had for a long time been a fairly unpopular member. (though not in the states were it was almost oppisite)
Err well I meant Yaguchi (which is why I said 'left', not 'graduated') who I thought was arguably the second most popular (rivaled only by Miki).
Wow, all these comments! Real quick:
Alice, I wasn't considering the hardcore H!P fans but I wonder how much they should be taken into account. To re-state a very faulty analogy, in American comics it was necessary for publishers to forget the defined audience for their product in order to find new audiences. Maybe the same could be done with MM as well, though it seems unlikely. This may have to be thought out more in a new post...
anonymous and anonymous: I've made many toasts with a paper cup.
Niji: I love Reina too, so it'd be nice if she had enough of a base to make this a factor.
anonymous: so Ayaya's PV won't be included with the new CDS? Dammit.
>>It's not just the idol market, but the entire music industry in general. CD sales are in a slump industry wide, as a result of the woesome Japanese economy.<<
Yeah, but the point is that female idols got hit HARD by the sales slump. Like I said in his previous article, if they weren't Morning Musume, they'd be pushing 20k no matter how good their music is because of the stigma attached with being a female Japanese idol.
>>What has contributed to the long decline is of course a combination of downloading, and what has occured long in japan illegal copies made on md players etc.<<
I've always disagreed with this reason for a decline in sales, simply because as you state in the next sentence, you have groups like OrangeRange - and recently SMAP, selling like there's no decline at all. I think the casual listener in general is just bored with the MoMusu/Hello! Pro type of idol (along with another reason you pointed out that I'm about to get into). Do music fans really care about PBs or Futsal? Other than hardcore fans, do you really think the casual listener is going to care about a "Biyuden" when the main singer in the group can't sing? I kind of feel that because of this stigma that might have in part been created by H!P/MM, girl groups such as SweetS, Dream, or Paradise GO!! GO!! have to work twice as hard to prove their worth as performers, and not just cheap immitations of something the general public is already tired of.
>>It could be the otaku movement. Before these idols were seen as models for young teenage girls, but now they seem to be the poster girls of otaku fantasies.<<
Here in lies what I see as the stigma. Do you really want to be associated with a group who's fanbase arguably consists of guys, ranging from Yoshizawa's age to even older than Tsunku? That wouldn't be much of a problem if a lot of these guys were NOT seen as the "otaku pervert" having bad fantasies about young members like Reina Tanaka, but they are seen that way. As you put it, they're seen as poster girls for otaku fantasies and not models for teenage girls to look up to and emulate. That turns people away from the H!P group, and it has a strong effect on promising Avex girls such as Hinoi Team and Parago.